Each pick names dated tests of its thesis: an earnings report, a ruling, a deal closing. This page lists every test with a result, across all picks, newest first. It is information, not advice (see the disclaimer).
Test: U.S. RevPAR growth near 2% and the 2026 outlook kept or raised pass; a fall in U.S. RevPAR or a lower outlook fails.
Outcome: U.S. RevPAR rose 6%, and Wyndham raised its 2026 outlook to adjusted EBITDA of $740 million to $745 million and adjusted diluted EPS of $4.84 to $4.92.
Test: Higher adjusted EBITDA margin than the 20.2% of Q2 2026 and continued positive adjusted free cash flow pass; a lower margin or a further cut to the outlook fails.
Outcome: Adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 22.2%, adjusted free cash flow was $155 million, and Weatherford raised its full-year adjusted free cash flow guidance again.
Test: Adjusted EPS growth of 8% or more and progress toward an FPL large-load contract pass; slower EPS growth or no progress on large loads fails.
Outcome: Adjusted EPS rose 9.7% and NextEra Energy Resources signed agreements for about 16.5 gigawatts of federal hub projects, but the release reported no FPL large-load contract yet.
Test: Macao adjusted property EBITDA back above $500 million with Marina Bay Sands near $700 million passes; another quarter near or below $430 million in Macao fails.
Outcome: Macao adjusted property EBITDA rose to $529 million, but Marina Bay Sands fell to $590 million, well below $700 million, so both conditions were not met.
Test: Organic growth near 6%, residential leads that stop falling, and a margin near the Q3 2025 level pass; organic growth well below 6% or a lower 2026 framework fails.
Outcome: Organic growth slowed to 4.4%, well below 6%, and the operating margin fell to 20.5% from 21.9%.
Test: MA ARR growth of about 9% or more and MIS revenue that still grows from a year earlier pass; MA ARR growth below 8% or a fall in MIS revenue fails.
Outcome: MA ARR grew 8%, and MIS revenue fell 1% from a record Q3 2025 as high-yield and leveraged loan issuance fell.
Test: A pass is core revenue growth at or above the guided 2% to 3% with bioprocessing revenue growth; a fail is core growth below 2% or a lower 2026 guidance.
Outcome: Core revenue grew 3.0% and bioprocessing grew, but Danaher lowered its 2026 core growth outlook to about 2.5% from 3% to 4%, while it raised its adjusted EPS guidance.
Test: Ad revenue growth above cost growth, first Meta One revenue and operating cash flow minus capital spending above the Q2 level pass (the expected legal charge of about $10 billion lowers profit, not this measure); free cash flow near zero again or a higher capex guide fails.
Outcome: Revenue grew 26%, but costs without the legal charge grew about 36%, free cash flow fell to negative $2.12 billion from $784 million in Q2, Meta gave no Meta One revenue and it raised the low end of its 2026 capex guide to $135 billion.
Test: Cloud revenue growth near 24% at constant currency and current cloud backlog growth near 25% or more pass; a clear slowdown in backlog growth or lower cloud guidance fails.
Outcome: Cloud revenue grew 25% and the current cloud backlog grew 26%, both at constant currency, and SAP moved its 2026 cloud revenue outlook to the upper end of its range.
Test: A stable or lower net charge-off rate and faster loan receivables growth pass; a rise in delinquencies or a reserve build fails.
Outcome: The net charge-off rate fell to 4.79% and loan growth rose to 3%, but Synchrony built its reserve by $30 million, which this test counts as a fail, although the allowance fell to 10.01% of loans.
Test: A net interest margin above 2.89% with the 3.00% to 3.05% exit rate kept and net charge-offs within 0.40% to 0.45% pass; a flat margin or a lower exit rate fails.
Outcome: The Q3 2026 margin rose to 2.95% and net charge-offs fell to 0.32%, and KeyCorp kept an exit margin of about 3.00%, the low end of its earlier range.
Test: Normalized FFO of $0.76 to $0.82 per share and RV and marina rent growth inside the 1.4% to 2.0% Q3 guidance pass; results below the guidance or lower full-year guidance fail.
Outcome: Normalized FFO was $0.79 per share, RV and marina rent grew 2.1% and the FFO guidance midpoint stayed at $3.18, but ELS cut its full-year RV and marina rent growth guidance to 1.2% from 1.6%.
Test: Revenue of $1.68 to $1.71 billion, adjusted EPS of $2.15 to $2.25 and stable Workforce Solutions margins pass; results below the guidance or lower 2026 guidance fail.
Outcome: Revenue of $1,692.5 million and adjusted EPS of $2.26 met the guidance, but Equifax reduced its 2026 revenue guidance because of a weaker US mortgage market.
Test: A retail auto net charge-off rate within the 1.8% to 2.0% guidance and a net interest margin excluding OID of 3.60% or more pass; higher losses or a lower margin fail.
Outcome: The retail auto net charge-off rate was 1.89% and the net interest margin excluding OID was 3.66%, and Ally kept its loss guidance.
Test: Organic sales growth near the 8% to 9% outlook, free cash flow on track for $8.50 to $8.75 billion and a higher defense backlog pass; a lower outlook or a new GTF charge fails.
Outcome: Organic sales grew 12%, defense backlog rose to $164 billion, and RTX raised its 2026 outlook, including free cash flow to $9.0 to $9.2 billion.
Test: Segment margin near 11% with no new large charge on a fixed-price program, and 2026 guidance kept or raised, pass; new charges or lower cash flow guidance fail.
Outcome: Segment margin was 12.1% with no new large charge, and Northrop raised its 2026 segment operating income and EPS guidance and kept its free cash flow guidance.
Test: Closing by the end of calendar 2026 with a clear integration plan passes; a delay fails.
Outcome: The deal closed on October 16, 2026, ahead of the year-end target, and ACV runs as an independent subsidiary under its existing leadership.
Test: Net interest margin at or above the Q2 level of 3.00% and more core net new assets than a year earlier pass; a lower margin or client cash leaving sweep accounts fails.
Outcome: Net interest margin rose to 3.04%, core net new assets rose 38% to a record $190.4 billion, and total sweep cash grew $7.1 billion, although only because of cash tied to client long/short strategies.
Test: Revenue that meets the more than 40% 2026 growth target with stable gross margin passes; a lower growth target or margin pressure from overseas fabs fails.
Outcome: Revenue growth beat the target, which management raised to about 44%, but gross margin fell to 66.4% from 67.7% in Q2 and the Q4 guide is lower again, partly because of overseas fab costs, so the margin was not stable.
Test: Copart accepts the tendered shares and the deal closes passes; another extension or a failed offer fails.
Outcome: About 68.43% of ACV shares were tendered, Copart accepted them, and the merger closed on October 16, 2026.
Test: A medical care ratio below the year-earlier 89.9% and in line with the full-year guide of about 88.1%, without large favorable reserve changes, and confirmed or raised guidance pass; a ratio above the guide or a guidance cut fails.
Outcome: The ratio fell to 88.4% from 89.9% and management raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $20.50, but the ratio was above the guide of about 88.1% and $610 million of favorable reserve changes helped the quarter.
Test: The waiting period ends without a second request from regulators passes; a second request, which delays closing into 2027, fails.
Outcome: The waiting period ended at 11:59 p.m. ET on October 13, 2026, without a second request from regulators.
Test: Flat or positive North America volume and core operating margin up year over year pass; another volume drop in snacks and drinks with margin down fails.
Outcome: Snack volume grew 0.5%, but beverage organic volume fell 3%, core operating margin fell 35 basis points, and PepsiCo cut its 2026 EPS growth guidance to 1% to 2%.
Test: A majority of ACV shares tendered by 5:00 p.m. ET passes; another extension because fewer than half of shares are tendered fails or delays the deal.
Outcome: 52.84% of ACV shares were tendered, and Copart extended the offer to October 15 only to wait for the end of the antitrust waiting period.
Test: Clear multi-year custom revenue targets with named program ramps pass; vague targets or a lower fiscal 2028 outlook fail.
Outcome: Marvell raised its fiscal 2028 revenue outlook to about $20 billion and its fiscal 2029 custom revenue outlook to more than $12 billion.
Test: Closing new long-term notes to redeem the $880 million 2027 notes passes; a failed offering fails.
Outcome: WRF closed $900 million of 6.875% notes due 2035 to redeem the 5.25% notes due 2027, at a higher interest rate.
Test: Sales growth near or above 5% with a lasting gross margin gain passes; slower sales or a margin gain from one-time items only fails.
Outcome: Net sales rose 5.6%, but tariff refunds and a LIFO gain caused all of the 1.82-point gross margin gain, and domestic same-store sales grew only 1.6%.
Test: A new CANDU new-build or life extension contract in Canada, Romania or another country by mid-2027 passes; no new large nuclear award and a falling Nuclear backlog fail.
Outcome: In September 2026, a joint venture of Candu Energy and Aecon won a contract of about $1.7 billion for the Pickering Unit 5 refurbishment.
Test: Plan value above the path set in 2025 with the 2030 target date kept passes; a lower value or a later target date fails.
Outcome: Plan value was about $67 per share, down from $68, and the $140 target date moved from 2030 to 2031.
Test: Closing of both Pizza Hut sales with about $2.3 billion of net proceeds passes; a failed or delayed closing fails.
Outcome: Yum completed the sale on September 1, 2026, after the Yum China part closed on August 7, for $2.7 billion in total plus an earn-out of up to $75 million.
Test: A passed bill that caps liability or speeds victim payments passes; a session end with no bill fails.
Outcome: The Assembly adjourned on September 1 without a vote on SB 492, and PG&E stock fell about 20% on August 31.
Test: Completion at the agreed price with proceeds used for AI infrastructure passes; a failed or repriced placement fails.
Outcome: Alibaba completed the placement of 710 million new shares at HK$112.70 on August 26, 2026.
Test: Closing with the bridge loan in place and no change to capital returns passes; a failed closing fails.
Outcome: Yum China completed the $1.2 billion purchase on August 7, 2026, with a renminbi bridge loan at about 2%.
Test: Recurring revenue growth near 8% and closed sales inside or above the cut $240 to $290 million range pass; lower growth or weaker bookings fail.
Outcome: Recurring revenue grew 8% in constant currency, closed sales reached $305 million, and FY2027 guidance called for 6% to 8% recurring revenue growth.
Test: Organic revenue growth inside the 6% to 8% range with guidance kept passes; growth below 6% or a guidance cut fails.
Outcome: Organic revenue grew 7% and Experian kept its full-year guidance unchanged.