VNT changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $33.30 → $34.15(+2.6%)
- Discount
- 22% to 37% → 21% to 36%(−1.0 pts)
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market prices Vontier as a slow-growth company tied to gasoline and to the spending of car mechanics. Fuel dispensers and related parts give almost half of its sales, and investors fear that electric vehicles will reduce demand for fueling equipment over time. The other two segments were weak in 2026. In Q2 2026, Mobility Technologies sales fell 6.2% and Repair Solutions sales fell 1.3%, because mechanics spent less on tools. Total core sales fell 0.2%. For the gap to close, Vontier must show that it can grow again. Core sales must grow about 5% in Q3 2026 and about 3% for the full year, as guided. Adjusted free cash flow conversion must reach about 95% of adjusted net earnings in 2026. Repair Solutions sales must stop falling, and fueling demand must stay strong. The first test is the Q3 2026 report, expected in early on November 5, 2026. The 2027 guidance in February 2027 is the second test. Vontier must also refinance or repay a $300 million term loan due on March 30, 2027. The fear of the electric vehicle shift can go away only slowly, so the gap will probably close over two to three years of steady growth and buybacks.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 5, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results: return to core growth. Pending. Watch: Core sales growth near the guided 5% with stable Repair Solutions sales passes; core sales growth below 3% or a cut to 2026 guidance fails. Feb 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance with core sales growth and higher adjusted EPS passes; guidance with falling core sales fails. Mar 30, 2027: $300 million term loan due. Pending. Watch: Repayment or refinancing with net leverage near 2.3 times passes; a rise in leverage above 3 times fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-15: Vontier said that it will discuss its Q3 2026 results on a call at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time on November 5, 2026. 2026-10-02: Kathryn Rowen, Executive Vice President and Chief Transformation and Operations Officer, told Vontier that she will leave on October 16, 2026, for another job. 2026-08-06: Vontier reported Q2 2026 results. Sales fell 2.2% to $756.7 million, and core sales fell 0.2%. Adjusted EPS was $0.89. Fueling core sales grew 4.6%, Mobility Technologies core sales fell 4.9%, and Repair Solutions sales fell 1.3%. Vontier raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $3.45 to $3.55 and guided Q3 core sales growth of about 5%. 2026-06-30: Vontier sold a majority of Teletrac Navman, its fleet software business. It received $85 million in cash, seller notes and a minority stake, and it recorded a preliminary loss of $86.2 million. 2026-05-19: The board raised the share buyback authorization to $1.0 billion. In the first half of 2026, Vontier bought back 6.2 million shares for $200 million. 2026-05-07: Vontier reported Q1 2026 results. Sales grew 1.3% to $750.6 million, and adjusted EPS was $0.80. Repair Solutions margin fell 180 basis points, partly because of a reserve for bad debt. Vontier also agreed to sell a majority of Teletrac Navman at a value of $220 million. 2026-04-01: Vontier repaid $500 million of notes that were due. It used $300 million from a new 364-day term loan and $200 million of cash.