TSCO changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $32.88 → $32.69(−0.6%)
- Discount
- 13% to 29% → 14% to 29%(+1.0 pts)
- Next earnings
- 2026-10-23 → 2026-10-22
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market prices Tractor Supply lower because its growth stopped and management cut its plans. Comparable store sales fell 1.5% in Q2 2026 because fewer customers came to the stores. In May 2026, seasonal and big-ticket items sold poorly, and companion animal sales stayed below the company average. On July 23, 2026, the company cut its 2026 outlook for comparable store sales to minus 1% to flat, from growth of 1% to 3%, and it cut adjusted EPS to $1.90 to $2.00. It also withdrew the long-term financial targets from its December 2024 Investor Day and will close about 75 Petsense stores. Investors now doubt that the store growth and the pet business can lift profit as planned. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Comparable store sales must turn positive again, with growth in transactions, in the second half of 2026. The companion animal business, with the new VIP Petcare clinics, must grow at least at the company average. The new long-term framework with the Q4 2026 report must show a credible path back to profit growth. The tests are the Q3 2026 report, expected in late on October 22, 2026, and the Q4 2026 report with the new framework in early 2027. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main risk is that weak spending on discretionary and big-ticket items lasts into 2027.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 2322, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results: comparable store sales. Pending. Watch: Positive comparable store sales with more transactions and a kept 2026 outlook pass; a further cut to the outlook fails. Jan 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and new long-term framework. Pending. Watch: A framework with comparable sales growth and margin targets near the old ones passes; much lower growth targets fail.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-09: Tractor Supply said that it will report Q3 2026 results before the market opens on October 22, 2026, with a call at 10 a.m. ET. 2026-08-25: Tractor Supply issued $500 million of 5.200% senior notes due 2032. It uses the money to repay borrowings under its revolving credit facility. 2026-08-03: Robert Mills, the Chief Technology Officer who also led digital and pet services, resigned from August 7, 2026. Seth Estep, the Chief Merchandising Officer, took over Allivet and VIP Petcare, and John Ordus, the Chief Stores Officer, took over Petsense. 2026-07-23: Tractor Supply reported Q2 2026 results. Net sales grew 2.3% to $4.54 billion, but comparable store sales fell 1.5%, with 1.7% fewer transactions. Adjusted EPS was $0.81. It recorded $65.8 million of charges to restructure Petsense, with about 75 store closures. It cut its 2026 outlook to adjusted EPS of $1.90 to $2.00 and withdrew its long-term financial framework. It will give a new framework with its Q4 2026 report. 2026-05-28: Tractor Supply bought VIP Petcare from PetIQ for $133.8 million. VIP Petcare runs community veterinary clinics in about 2,700 retail locations, including 1,700 Tractor Supply stores, and serves more than one million pets each year. 2026-05-19: Tractor Supply amended its senior credit facility, with a $1.30 billion revolving credit line. 2026-04-21: Tractor Supply reported Q1 2026 results. Net sales grew 3.6% to $3.59 billion, and comparable store sales grew 0.5%. Diluted EPS was $0.31. It kept its 2026 outlook of 1% to 3% comparable store sales growth and diluted EPS of $2.13 to $2.23.