NXST changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $164.59 → $164.83(+0.1%)
- Discount
- 6% to 31% → 6% to 30%(−0.0 pts)
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-06 → 2026-11-05
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market prices Nexstar for the lawsuit against its TEGNA purchase and for the debt it took on to pay for it. After the deal closed on March 19, 2026, DIRECTV and several State Attorneys General sued under the antitrust laws. A federal court in California ordered on April 17, 2026 that Nexstar and TEGNA stay separate until the case ends, and the trial is set for July 6, 2027. While the order lasts, Nexstar cannot get the cost savings it expected from the deal. Total debt rose to $11.7 billion at June 30, 2026 from $6.3 billion at the end of 2025, and the total net leverage ratio was 4.22 times without the synergies. Investors also expect fewer subscribers to pay for traditional TV over time, which reduces distribution fees. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Nexstar must win in court, or the Ninth Circuit must narrow the order, so that it can combine TEGNA and get the savings. It must use its free cash flow, which is usually strongest in election years, to pay down debt. Distribution revenue must hold up as fees rise and streaming TV subscribers grow. The Q3 2026 report, estimated for about on November 65, 2026, shows the political advertising from the 2026 elections and the debt repayment. The Ninth Circuit hearing is expected in Q4 2026, and the trial is in July 2027. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next six to eight quarters. The main reason it may not close is a loss in court, which can force Nexstar to sell stations or keep TEGNA apart.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 65, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 earnings: political revenue and debt repayment. Pending. Watch: Strong political advertising and more debt repayment that lowers the total net leverage ratio below 4.22 times pass; a higher leverage ratio fails. Q4 2026 (estimate): Ninth Circuit hearing on the TEGNA injunction. Pending. Watch: A ruling that narrows the injunction or dismisses the State plaintiffs passes; a ruling that keeps the full injunction fails. Jul 6, 2027: Antitrust trial on the TEGNA purchase. Pending. Watch: A ruling for Nexstar, or a settlement that keeps most of TEGNA, passes; an order to undo the deal or to sell many stations fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-08-06: The FCC voted to remove the national ownership limit of 39% of US TV households and to review each transaction separately. Nexstar said that the decision is not yet effective and is likely to be challenged in court. 2026-08-06: The court in California ruled that its order does not allow current or former Nexstar employees, directors or consultants to serve on the TEGNA board, and told Nexstar to comply at once. TheDesk reported on August 14, 2026 that four of the five TEGNA directors, including Nexstar CEO Perry Sook, left the TEGNA board. 2026-08-06: Nexstar reported Q2 2026 results. Net revenue was a record $1.99 billion, up 62%, with $697 million of revenue from TEGNA. Net income was $113 million and adjusted EBITDA was $633 million. Adjusted free cash flow was $238 million. Nexstar repaid $409 million of debt and paid $57 million in dividends in the quarter. The FCC was scheduled to vote on the same day on a proposal to repeal the national ownership cap for TV stations. 2026-07-31: Nexstar declared a quarterly dividend of $1.86 per share, paid on August 28, 2026. 2026-07-09: The D.C. Circuit rejected all of the challenges to the FCC Media Bureau's order that approved Nexstar's purchase of TEGNA. The antitrust lawsuit in California is separate, and its trial is set for July 6, 2027. 2026-04-17: The U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of California issued a preliminary injunction in the lawsuit by DIRECTV and several State Attorneys General. Nexstar and TEGNA must stay separate while the case continues. Nexstar appealed to the Ninth Circuit to narrow the order. 2026-04-02: Nexstar issued $1,725 million of senior unsecured notes due 2034 to refinance $1,714 million of notes due in July 2027. 2026-03-19: Nexstar completed its purchase of TEGNA after it received approvals from the FCC and the Department of Justice. TEGNA shareholders received $22.00 per share in cash.