NWG changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $17.51 → $17.39(−0.7%)
- Discount
- 3% to 21% → 4% to 21%(+1.0 pts)
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-02 → 2026-10-30
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market prices NatWest for its dependence on the UK economy and on UK interest rates. Much of its income comes from the margin on UK loans and deposits, so lower Bank of England rates and lower mortgage margins can reduce income. The purchase of Evelyn Partners on June 30, 2026 cut the CET1 ratio by about 1.4 percentage points to 13.2%, reduced tangible net asset value per share to 359p from 400p at March 31, 2026, and moved the next share buyback to the full-year 2026 results. For the gap to close, three things must be true. NatWest must reach its 2026 guidance: total income of about £17.9 billion excluding notable items, costs of about £8.5 billion and a return on tangible equity above 19%. Income from its structural hedge must rise by more than £1.5 billion in 2026 and more than £1.0 billion in 2027, as the bank expects. Evelyn Partners must add income and assets under management without large integration costs. The Q3 2026 results on October 30, estimated for about November 2, 2026, give the next test. The full-year 2026 results in February 2027 show the size of the next buyback. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. The main reason it may not close is a weaker UK economy, which can raise bad loans and lower loan demand.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 2Oct 30, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results: income, impairments and capital. Pending. Watch: Income on track for about £17.9 billion in 2026, a loan impairment rate below 25 basis points and a CET1 ratio of 13% or more pass; lower guidance or higher impairments fail. Feb 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results: share buyback. Pending. Watch: A return on tangible equity above 19% for 2026 and a new share buyback pass; no buyback or a lower return fails.