NI changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $42.68 → $42.99(+0.7%)
- Discount
- −4% to 6% → −5% to 5%(−1.0 pts)
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-05 → 2026-10-28
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market prices NiSource for the cost of a large new investment program and the risk of its data center strategy. The 2026 to 2030 capital plan is $28.6 billion, which includes $7.6 billion of investments for data centers. Interest expense rose to $391 million in the first half of 2026 from $272 million a year earlier, and debt rose to $17.4 billion at June 30, 2026. Q2 2026 adjusted EPS fell to $0.16 from $0.22 because of higher depreciation and interest expense. NiSource must also find customers for its new generation beyond Amazon and Alphabet. For the gap to close, three things must be true. NiSource must reach its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02 to $2.07 and keep its target of 9% to 10% annual growth from 2026 to 2033. GenCo must build the plants for Amazon and Alphabet on time and on budget, and the contracts must protect existing customers from the costs, as the company says they do. NiSource must keep its investment grade credit ratings while it funds the plan. The Q3 2026 report on October 28, estimated for about November 5, 2026, gives the next test. The 2026 results in February 2027 show whether the company met its guidance. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main reason it may not close is higher interest rates, which raise the cost of the investment plan and make utility shares less attractive.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 5Oct 28, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 earnings: guidance and data center plan. Pending. Watch: A reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02 to $2.07 and progress on GenCo projects pass; lower guidance or a delay in the data center projects fails. Feb 2027 (estimate): 2026 results: EPS guidance met. Pending. Watch: 2026 adjusted EPS within $2.02 to $2.07 and a reaffirmed 9% to 10% growth target pass; EPS below the range or a lower target fails.