MOS changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $18.82 → $17.68(−6.1%)
- Discount
- 37% to 53% → 41% to 56%(+4.0 pts)
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-04 → 2026-11-03
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market prices Mosaic for high sulfur and ammonia costs that make phosphate production unprofitable. Sulfur cost $522 per long ton in Q2 2026, and the Q3 sulfur contracts settled at $705. The Phosphate segment had a gross margin of minus $4 per tonne in Q2 2026, and Mosaic cut production: Faustina is idle and Bartow runs at 40% of its target rate. Brazil also idles its commodity fertilizer production. Mosaic had a net loss of $531 million in the first half of 2026, with $442 million of charges for the Araxá and Patrocínio decisions in Q1. Adjusted EBITDA fell to $407 million in Q2 2026 from $566 million a year earlier. Potash is the stable part, with $278 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q2. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Sulfur and ammonia costs must fall, which Mosaic believes is temporary, so that phosphate plants can return to full rates. Phosphate prices must stay high while global supply stays tight. Potash must produce about 9 million tonnes in 2026 at lower unit costs. The Q3 2026 report, estimated for about on November 43, 2026, shows the effect of the curtailments and the higher sulfur cost. The Q4 2026 report in February 2027 shows whether production restarts. If raw material costs return to normal, the gap can close over the next four to eight quarters. The main reason it may not close is a long period of high sulfur costs, which Mosaic cannot control.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 43, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 earnings: phosphate margins and cash flow. Pending. Watch: Positive free cash flow and Phosphate adjusted EBITDA near the $128 million of Q2 2026 pass; a larger Phosphate loss or new cuts to production fail. Feb 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 earnings: production restart. Pending. Watch: Lower sulfur costs and a plan to restart curtailed phosphate production pass; continued curtailments into 2027 fail.