MKKGY changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $32.31 → $32.23(−0.2%)
- Discount
- −6% to 13% → −6% to 14%(−0.0 pts)
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-06 → 2026-11-12
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market prices Merck KGaA for the fall of its Healthcare business and the cost of its largest planned purchase. Mavenclad, a large multiple sclerosis medicine, faces generic competition in the US: its sales fell 10.2% organically in Q2 2026, and the 2026 guidance assumes no US Mavenclad sales from August 2026. Healthcare sales fell 3.4% organically in Q2 2026. In June 2026, Merck agreed to buy Bio-Techne for $73 per share in cash, an enterprise value of about $11.3 billion, and it expects the deal to add to EPS pre only from the third year after closing. The company will fund it with new bonds, cash and a loan, so net financial debt will rise from € 9.2 billion. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Life Science and Electronics must keep growing, as in Q2 2026, when Process Solutions grew 14.7% and Semiconductor Solutions 17.3% organically, so that they offset the Healthcare decline. Merck must reach its 2026 guidance of € 5.9 billion to € 6.3 billion of EBITDA pre and EPS pre of € 7.90 to € 8.60. The Bio-Techne deal must close in late 2026 or early 2027, as expected, while Merck keeps a strong investment grade rating. The Q3 2026 report, estimated for about on November 612, 2026, gives the next test. The deal closing and the 2027 guidance in March 2027 are the main tests. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. The main reason it may not close is a faster fall in Healthcare sales than the growth in Life Science.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 612, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results: Healthcare decline and Life Science growth. Pending. Watch: Organic growth in Life Science and Electronics that offsets the Healthcare decline, and a confirmed 2026 guidance, pass; a cut to the guidance fails. Q1 2027 (estimate): Bio-Techne purchase closes. Pending. Watch: The purchase closes in late 2026 or early 2027 with no large change in terms and a strong investment grade rating passes; a delay or a rating downgrade fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-09-23: Bio-Techne shareholders approved the purchase by Merck at a special meeting. The US antitrust waiting period ended on September 18, 2026. The deal still needs other regulatory approvals, and Bio-Techne still expects it to close in late 2026 or early 2027. 2026-08-06: Merck reported Q2 2026 results. Net sales rose 3.4% to € 5.43 billion, with organic growth of 4.1%. EBITDA pre rose 9.4% to € 1.60 billion, a margin of 29.4%. EPS pre rose to € 2.16, while reported EPS fell to € 1.13 because of a hedge effect linked to the Bio-Techne purchase and higher administration costs. Life Science grew 8.0% and Electronics 11.7% organically, and Healthcare fell 3.4%. Merck raised its 2026 guidance to net sales of € 21.0 billion to € 21.8 billion and EBITDA pre of € 5.9 billion to € 6.3 billion. 2026-07-01: Merck announced that it will repay early, on September 9, 2026, the full € 271 million outstanding of a hybrid bond issued in 2020. 2026-06-25: Merck agreed to buy Bio-Techne, a US maker of life science tools, analytical technologies and consumables, for $73 per share in cash, an enterprise value of about $11.3 billion (€ 9.9 billion). The deal needs antitrust approvals and the approval of Bio-Techne shareholders, and Merck expects it to close in late 2026 or early 2027. It expects the deal to raise the EBITDA pre margin at once and to add to EPS pre from the third year after closing. 2026-06-18: Merck completed the purchase of Saturnus Bio, a private US biotechnology company that develops gene modulation treatments for rare inherited heart muscle diseases. 2026-05-01: Kai Beckmann became Chair of the Executive Board, after Belén Garijo's term ended in April 2026. Benjamin Hein succeeded him as CEO Electronics.