MGM changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $28.60 → $28.87(+0.9%)
- Discount
- 30% to 48% → 29% to 48%(−1.0 pts)
- Next earnings
- 2026-10-29 → 2026-10-28
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market prices MGM for weak results and for the end of a buyout proposal. On June 1, 2026, IAC, now People Inc., proposed to buy all other shares for $48.30 per share in cash, and on September 23, 2026, it withdrew the proposal. In Q2 2026, Las Vegas Strip revenue rose 3%, but RevPAR fell 4%, MGM China's Segment Adjusted EBITDAR fell 15%, and MGM Digital lost money and took a goodwill impairment of $111 million. MGM also has large lease payments. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Las Vegas Strip revenue and EBITDAR must keep growing. MGM China must keep its margins while it pays a higher branding fee. MGM Digital must lower its losses, and MGM must continue to repurchase shares with the $1.4 billion left under its plan. People Inc. said that it is still open to a strategic transaction, which could also close the gap, but no new offer exists. The Q3 2026 report, expected in late on October 202628, 2026 and the Q4 report in February 2027 give the next evidence. The gap closes slowly, over two to three years, unless a new transaction comes. The main reason it may not close is weak demand in Las Vegas, which would lower room rates and gaming revenue.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 2928, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 earnings: Las Vegas and Macau. Pending. Watch: Growth in Las Vegas Strip EBITDAR and stable MGM China margins pass; a fall in Las Vegas EBITDAR fails. Feb 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 earnings: digital losses. Pending. Watch: Smaller MGM Digital losses and continued share repurchases pass; larger losses or a stop to repurchases fail.