MDLN changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $35.96 → $35.31(−1.8%)
- Discount
- 7% to 24% → 9% to 26%(+2.0 pts)
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-05 → 2026-11-04
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market prices Medline for lower profit growth and for the shares that its owners still have to sell. In August 2026, Medline lowered its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $3.3 billion to $3.4 billion from $3.5 billion to $3.6 billion, because of inflation from the Middle East conflict, more spending on operations, quality remediation and weak retail sales. A fire destroyed its Tracy, California distribution center on June 11, 2026, with losses of $336 million before insurance. Medline also has three unresolved FDA warning letters, and its private equity owners sold 72.6 million shares in May 2026, so more sales are possible. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Medline must reach its new 2026 guidance while organic sales grow 9.0% to 10.0%. Insurers must pay a large part of the fire losses. The company must resolve the FDA warning letters without large recalls. The Q3 2026 report, expected in early on November 20264, 2026 and the 2027 guidance in early 2027 give the next evidence. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. The main reason it may not close is that cost inflation and remediation costs continue, so that profit grows much more slowly than sales.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 54, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 earnings: new guidance. Pending. Watch: Organic sales growth near 9% to 10% and Adjusted EBITDA on track for $3.3 billion to $3.4 billion pass; another cut to the guidance fails. Q1 2027 (estimate): Tracy fire insurance and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: Insurance recoveries for most of the $336 million of losses and guidance for higher Adjusted EBITDA in 2027 pass; small recoveries or flat profit guidance fail.