LNT changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $68.32 → $68.39(+0.1%)
- Discount
- 7% to 15% → 6% to 15%(−1.0 pts)
- Next earnings
- 2026-10-30 → 2026-10-29
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market prices Alliant Energy as a utility that must spend a lot of money and issue new shares to serve data centers. The company expects load growth of 60% by 2031, and it has applied for large new natural gas plants in Iowa, such as a 720 MW unit in Linn County and the 1,200 MW Riverhawk Energy Center. To pay for this, it sells new shares through a $1 billion at-the-market program and issues new debt. In the first half of 2026, operating income covered interest expense only 1.5 times. Investors fear that new shares and higher interest costs lower earnings growth, and that data center load comes late. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Alliant Energy must earn 2026 EPS in the upper half of its $3.36 to $3.46 guidance, as it said in July 2026. The data centers in its area must start to use power as planned. The Iowa Utilities Commission must approve the new gas plants on terms that let the company earn a fair return, with decisions expected in Q1 and Q2 2027. The Q3 2026 report on October 29, expected in early November 2026, and the 2027 guidance give the next evidence. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main reason it may not close is a regulatory decision that limits the return on the new investment.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 3029, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 earnings: 2026 guidance. Pending. Watch: Year-to-date results on track for the upper half of the $3.36 to $3.46 guidance pass; a cut to the guidance fails. Mar 2027 (estimate): Iowa decision on the Linn County gas plant. Pending. Watch: Approval of the 720 MW plant on terms that allow a normal return passes; a denial or a cost cap well below the plan fails.