KHC changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $23.28 → $23.50(+0.9%)
- Thesis
- The market prices Kraft Heinz for brands that lose buyers in North America. In Q2 2026, organic net sales fell 1.3%, and volume and mix fell 2.6 points, with declines in meats and spoonables. Cuts to SNAP food benefits reduce demand, and the company expects them to lower 2026 organic sales by about 1 point. To win back buyers, Kraft Heinz spends about $700 million more on its brands in 2026 than in 2025, so it expects constant currency adjusted operating income to fall 16% to 18%. In Q2 2026, it also wrote down $7.4 billion of goodwill and brand values, including $3.4 billion for the Kraft brand, and these impairments show that the brands earn less than before. The plan to split into two companies, announced in September 2025, is paused since February 11, 2026, so a split no longer gives a dated path to unlock value. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Volume in North America must stop falling and turn positive in 2027, as the higher brand spending takes effect. Adjusted EPS must reach the 2026 guidance of $2.03 to $2.09 with free cash flow conversion near 110%. The company must keep its dividend and its investment-grade ratings while it reduces debt; Moody's has its Baa2 rating under review for a downgrade. The Q3 2026 report on November 4, 2026, the Investor Day on November 12, 2026, and the 2027 outlook in about February 2027 give the evidence. If volume recovers, the gap can close over several years. If brand volume keeps falling, the gap can stay.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 4, 2026: Q3 2026 results: North America volume. Pending. Watch: A smaller fall in North America volume and mix than the 3.8 points of Q2 and the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.03 to $2.09 kept pass; a larger volume fall or lower guidance fails. Nov 12, 2026: Investor Day: long-term strategy and targets. Pending. Watch: Clear volume and margin targets with dated milestones and a kept dividend pass; vague targets or a lower profit outlook fail. Feb 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: A 2027 outlook with stable or positive organic sales from volume and stable adjusted operating income passes; another year of falling volume and profit fails. 2027 (estimate): Credit ratings and the paused split. Pending. Watch: Ratings kept at BBB or Baa2 with the dividend unchanged pass; a downgrade or a dividend cut fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-12: Kraft Heinz said it will report Q3 2026 results on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, before the market opens, with an analyst question-and-answer session at 9:00 a.m. ET. 2026-10-07: Kraft Heinz changed its reportable segments from Q3 2026. It combined its emerging market units into one Emerging Markets segment, moved some European countries into Europe and Pacific Developed Markets, and now reports three segments with North America. 2026-10-02: Angel Willis, Executive Vice President, Global General Counsel and Corporate Affairs Officer, said she will resign from Kraft Heinz on October 20, 2026. 2026-09-14: Kraft Heinz common stock started to trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol KHC, after the company moved its listing from Nasdaq. It announced the move on August 26, 2026. 2026-09-02: Kraft Heinz said that it will hold an Investor Day on November 12, 2026, in New York. Its leaders will present the long-term strategy for volume-led, profitable growth, the financial outlook and key milestones. 2026-08-05: Kraft Heinz reported Q2 2026 results. Net sales fell 1.4% to $6.3 billion, and organic net sales fell 1.3%. Non-cash impairments of $7.4 billion, including $3.4 billion for the Kraft brand, caused an operating loss of $6.4 billion and diluted EPS of $(4.60). Adjusted EPS was $0.56, down 18.8%. Free cash flow in the first half of 2026 was $1.7 billion, up 10.3%. 2026-08-05: Kraft Heinz raised its 2026 organic net sales outlook to a fall of 0.5% to 2.0% and set adjusted EPS guidance at $2.03 to $2.09. It raised its extra brand investment for 2026 by $100 million, to about $700 million, and it expects constant currency adjusted operating income to fall 16% to 18%. 2026-05-26: Kraft Heinz Foods Company bought back $1.4 billion of its 4.375% notes due 2046 in a tender offer. On May 21, 2026, it issued €500 million of 3.500% notes due 2031 and €500 million of 3.950% notes due 2034. 2026-05-06: Kraft Heinz reported Q1 2026 results. Net sales rose 0.8%, and organic net sales fell 0.4%. Adjusted operating income fell 11.8% to $1.1 billion. The CEO said that the extra brand investments improve market share trends, and the company kept its 2026 outlook.