FISV changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $47.21 → $48.21(+2.1%)
- Discount
- 47% to 61% → 46% to 60%(−1.0 pts)
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-06 → 2026-11-03
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- Fiserv trades at a discount because its revenue falls, its outlook keeps getting cut, and its leaders keep changing in the middle of a turnaround. Organic revenue fell 5% in Q2 2026, with an 8% decline in Financial Solutions, and adjusted EPS fell 26%. On August 6, 2026, Fiserv cut its 2026 outlook to organic revenue of minus 1% to 0% and adjusted EPS of $7.20 to $7.40, from growth of 1% to 3% and EPS of $8.00 to $8.30. The CEO, Mike Lyons, left on June 15, 2026, to lead Truist, about one month after the Investor Day, and the President left on July 7, 2026. The market doubts the One Fiserv action plan and the medium-term targets that Fiserv set at its Investor Day on May 14, 2026: adjusted revenue growth of 4% to 6% a year from 2027 to 2029, an adjusted operating margin of 37% or more and adjusted EPS of $12 or more in 2029. For the gap to close, organic revenue must stop falling in 2026 and grow again in 2027, Clover must keep growing, core bank clients must stop leaving, and margins must recover while Fiserv keeps its investment-grade rating. The first test is the Q3 2026 report, expected in early on November 3, 2026. The 2027 outlook in February 2027 must match the medium-term plan. If growth returns in 2027, the gap can close over two to three years. The main risk is that the new leaders cut the targets again.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 63, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results: organic revenue and the new outlook. Pending. Watch: Organic revenue inside the outlook of minus 1% to 0% for the year, a stable margin and no new outlook cut pass; another cut or a larger revenue decline fails. Feb 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: A 2027 outlook with positive organic revenue growth in line with the 4% to 6% medium-term target passes; a lower target or flat revenue fails. May 2027 (estimate): Q1 2027 results: return to growth. Pending. Watch: Positive organic growth in both segments passes; another quarter of falling Financial Solutions revenue fails.