FBIN changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $39.96 → $40.95(+2.5%)
- Discount
- 14% to 37% → 12% to 35%(−2.0 pts)
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-04 → 2026-11-03
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- Fortune Brands trades at a discount because its sales fall with a weak US housing market and because the market doubts that the new management can fix execution. The company expects 2026 sales to fall by a low single-digit percentage, with US repair and remodel spending down and new single-family construction down by a mid single-digit percentage. In March 2026, after talks with shareholders, Amit Banati gave up his planned move to CEO, an interim CEO took over, and Ed Garden of Garden Investments joined the Board under a cooperation agreement. Jesse Singh, the former CEO of AZEK, became CEO on June 29, 2026, and Peter Clifford became CFO on September 21, 2026. In August 2026, the company raised its 2026 EPS outlook to $3.22 to $3.52 before charges, but this includes $0.52 of one-time tariff refunds, so the outlook without refunds fell. It also wrote down Fiberon by $221 million and now sells it for $160 million. For the gap to close, sales in Water Innovations must return to growth, the operating margin before charges must rise without the tariff refunds, the new leaders must show a clear plan with cost cuts, and lower mortgage rates must help the housing market. The first test is the Q3 2026 report, expected on about November 43, 2026. The full-year report and the 2027 outlook in February 2027 will give the new team's first full plan. If execution improves, the gap can close over the next four to eight quarters. The main risk is a housing market that stays weak for longer.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 43, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results: sales trend and margins. Pending. Watch: Water Innovations sales that fall less than in Q2, a higher margin before charges without tariff refunds and the 2026 outlook kept pass; another sales decline of more than 4% or an outlook cut fails. Dec 2026 (estimate): Fiberon sale closes. Pending. Watch: The sale closes within the expected 60 days for $160 million in cash passes; a failed approval or a lower price fails. Feb 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and the new team's 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: A 2027 outlook with sales growth, margin expansion and a clear cost plan passes; another year of falling sales and margins fails.