ELS changes

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View the full Oct 22, 2026 version

Price: $61.21 → $59.16(−3.3%)
Discount: 12% to 28% → 15% to 31%(+3.0 pts)
Next earnings: 2026-10-20 → 2027-01-20
Next earnings is estimate: No → Yes
About: Equity LifeStyle Properties (ELS) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) based in Chicago. It owns or has an interest in 453 properties with 173,559623 sites, mainly in the United States, at JuneSeptember 30, 2026. It owns manufactured home (MH) communities, where residents own their homes and rent the land, RV resorts and marinas. Many of its properties serve retirees and seasonal visitors. MH base rent is its largest source of income. ELS pays a quarterly dividend of $0.5425 per share, or $2.17 a year.
Thesis: The market prices ELS for slow RV demand and for higher interest rates. Core RV and marina base rent grew only 0.18% in the first halfnine months of 2026. In October 2026, and ELS cut its full-year growth guidance for this income to 1.62% at the midpoint, from 1.6% in July and 2.4% at the midpointearlier. Rent from short-term RV visitors is weaker than annual rent, which grew 5.3% in Q3 2026. Higher interest rates also make REIT dividends less attractive and raise the cost of new debt. For the gap to close, three things must be true. MH base rent must keep growing at about 5% to 6% a year, as it did with 5.7% in the first halfnine months of 2026. ELS gave a preliminary 2027 assumption of about 5.1%. Total RV and marina rent must start to grow againfaster than in 2026. Normalized FFO must reach the 2026 guidance of $3.1315 to $3.2321 per share and keep growing in 2027. The Q3full-year 2026 report on October 20, 2026 givesand the next test. The 2027 guidance in earlyabout January 2027 isare the main test. The gap can close only over several years, as RV demand recovers and interest rates fall. The main reason it may not close is a long period of weak RV demand, together with high interest rates.
Risks: RV and marina income depends on travel and leisure spending. Core RV and marina base rent grew only 0.18% in the first halfnine months of 2026, and a weak consumer can slow it further. Most debt is mortgage debt, with $2.75 billion of mortgage notes at JuneSeptember 30, 2026. Refinancing at higher interest rates raises interest expense and slows FFO growth. Storms can damage properties and raise insurance costs. ELS records casualty charges and insurance recoveries, such as $7.1 million of insurance recovery revenue in Q2 2026. Many MH residents are retirees with fixed incomes. Large rent increases can meet resistance from residents or new rules from local governments.
Balance sheet: Cash: $36M24M Debt: $3.3B Net debt: $3.3B Debt due within 12 months: $200M ELS funds its properties mainly with secured mortgage debt. At JuneSeptember 30, 2026, total debt was $3.3433 billion before deferred financing costs: $2.75 billion of mortgage notes, $438440 million of unsecured term loans and $128138 million drawn on the unsecured line of credit. The weighted average interest rate was 4.12%. No mortgage debt is due before 2028. A $200 million term loan is due in 2027, within 12 months. Cash and restricted cash were $3624 million. The company states total debt to adjusted EBITDAre of 4.43 times and an interest coverage ratio of 5.67 times for the 12 months to JuneSeptember 30, 2026. ELS expects interest and related amortization of $134.5 million to $140.5 million for 2026. As of 2026-0609-30.
Checkpoints: Oct 20, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: RV rent and FFO. PendingFailed. Watch: Normalized FFO of $0.76 to $0.82 per share and RV and marina rent growth inside the 1.4% to 2.0% Q3 guidance pass; results below the guidance or lower full-year guidance fail. Outcome: Normalized FFO was $0.79 per share, RV and marina rent grew 2.1% and the FFO guidance midpoint stayed at $3.18, but ELS cut its full-year RV and marina rent growth guidance to 1.2% from 1.6%. Jan 20, 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance for MH rent growth near the preliminary 5.1% and higher total RV and marina rent growth than inthe 1.2% of 2026 passes; guidance for slower MH growth or lower RV rent fails.
Recent events: 2026-10-20: ELS reported Q3 2026 results. Normalized FFO rose 4.6% to $0.79 per share, at the midpoint of its guidance. Core MH base rent rose 5.7%, and core RV and marina base rent rose 2.1%, with annual RV and marina rent up 5.3%. Net income per share fell to $0.45, partly because of a $12.1 million deferred tax valuation allowance. ELS kept the midpoint of its 2026 normalized FFO guidance at $3.18 per share and cut its RV and marina rent growth guidance to 1.2%. Its preliminary 2027 assumptions are rent growth of about 5.1% for MH and about 4.7% for annual RV sites. 2026-07-28: ELS declared a third quarter 2026 dividend of $0.5425 per share, paid on October 9, 2026. 2026-07-22: ELS reported Q2 2026 results. Normalized FFO rose 7.7% to $0.74 per share, above the midpoint of its guidance. Core MH base rent rose 5.8%, while core RV and marina base rent rose 1.8%. ELS raised the midpoint of its 2026 normalized FFO guidance to $3.18 per share and cut its RV and marina rent growth guidance to 1.6%. 2026-04-30: ELS bought the remaining 20% interests in some RV joint ventures for $4.4 million. As a result, it consolidated seven RV properties and one land parcel.