BKNG changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $167.34 → $158.38(−5.4%)
- Discount
- 9% to 33% → 14% to 37%(+5.0 pts)
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-04 → 2026-11-03
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market prices Booking at a discount mainly because it fears that AI assistants will take travel searches and bookings away from online travel agencies. In its 2025 annual report, Booking says that Google and other platforms add AI answers and assistants that can answer a traveler's question without sending the traveler to Booking.com, and that companies that offer AI agents are now competitors. A large part of its traffic comes from these platforms. Slower growth adds to the doubt. Room night growth slowed from 6% in Q1 2026 to 5% in Q2, because the conflict in the Middle East raised flight prices and reduced long-haul travel, and the company guided to 3% to 5% for Q3. European rules under the Digital Markets Act also limit how Booking can work with hotels. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Room nights must keep growing at about mid-single digits while marketing costs stay near 4.7% of gross bookings, which shows that travelers still come to Booking directly. Adjusted EPS must grow in the low to mid teens in 2026, as guided, helped by the Transformation Program savings of about $650 million a year by the end of 2027. Booking must show that its own AI tools and its direct channel, which is in the mid-fifties percent of room nights, keep customers. The next check is the Q3 2026 report, expected in early on November 3, 2026, then the 2027 outlook in February 2027. If growth holds and AI does not reduce traffic, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters.
- Risks
- AI assistants and AI agents from Google and other companies can answer travel questions and book trips without sending travelers to Booking.com. A large part of Booking's traffic comes from these platforms, so this can reduce bookings or raise marketing costs. Travel demand depends on the economy and on events such as the conflict in the Middle East, which raised flight prices and reduced long-haul travel in 2026. A recession or a new conflict can slow room night growth. Regulators in Europe limit how Booking can work with hotels. The European Commission named Booking a gatekeeper under the Digital Markets Act. In Spain, the competition authority fined Booking.com in 2024, and the company has recorded a $472 million liability while it appeals. In September 2026, the EU General Court upheld the Commission's block of the Etraveli purchase. Most of Booking's business is in Europe, and it reports in US dollars. A stronger dollar lowers reported revenue and profit. Booking has negative stockholders' equity of $10.8 billion at June 30, 2026, because it buys back large amounts of stock. It funds part of the buybacks with debt, so debt can keep rising.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 43, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results: room nights and Q4 outlook. Pending. Watch: Room night growth within the guided 3% to 5% and full-year adjusted EPS growth in the low to mid teens pass; growth below the guidance or a cut to the full-year outlook fails. Feb 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: A 2027 outlook with mid-single-digit room night growth and stable marketing costs as a share of gross bookings passes; slower growth or higher marketing costs fail. Dec 2027 (estimate): Transformation Program savings. Pending. Watch: Annual run-rate savings of about $650 million by the end of 2027 pass; lower savings or a delay fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-06: Booking said that it will report Q3 2026 results after the market closes on November 3, 2026, with a conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET. 2026-09-09: The EU General Court dismissed Booking's appeal against the European Commission's 2023 decision to block its purchase of Etraveli, a flight booking company. The court accepted the Commission's view that the deal would make Booking's position in hotel bookings stronger. Booking can still appeal to the EU Court of Justice. 2026-08-04: Booking reported Q2 2026 results. Room nights grew 5% to 325 million, gross bookings grew 9% to $51.0 billion, and revenue grew 8% to $7.4 billion. Adjusted EPS was $2.54, up 15%. It bought back $3.7 billion of stock and raised its expected Transformation Program savings to about $650 million a year by the end of 2027. For Q3 2026, it guided to room night growth of 3% to 5%. 2026-05-11: Booking sold €1.9 billion of senior notes: €600 million at 3.500% due 2030, €700 million at 4.000% due 2034, and €600 million at 4.500% due 2039. 2026-05-07: Booking sold $750 million of 5.375% senior notes due 2036. 2026-04-28: Booking reported Q1 2026 results. Room nights grew 6%, and the company estimated that the conflict in the Middle East reduced this growth by about 2 percentage points. Gross bookings grew 15%, revenue grew 16%, and adjusted EBITDA grew 19%.