AS changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $29.94 → $29.58(−1.2%)
- Discount
- 23% to 43% → 24% to 44%(+1.0 pts)
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-18 → 2026-11-17
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market doubts that Amer Sports can keep its growth and margins after 2026. Revenue grew 32% in each of the first two quarters of 2026, but investors see several reasons for caution. Greater China gave about one third of first-half revenue, so the company depends on Chinese consumers and on relations between China and the United States. The Q2 2026 margins included a one-time benefit of 390 basis points from net tariff refunds. The company also spends heavily to grow: SG&A rose 30% in Q2 2026. Large holders sell shares; on August 20, 2026, Tencent sold about 15.8 million shares in block trades. For the gap to close, four things must be true. Q3 2026 revenue must grow 20% to 22%, with an adjusted operating margin above 14%, as guided on September 16, 2026. Full-year 2026 results must meet the guidance of about 24% revenue growth and adjusted EPS of $1.27 to $1.30. Greater China must keep growing at double-digit rates. Guidance for 2027 must agree with the five-year plan of low-double-digit to mid-teens revenue growth. The first evidence comes with the Q3 2026 report, estimated for about on November 1817, 2026, and then the Q4 report with 2027 guidance in early 2027. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main reason it may not close is a slowdown of consumer demand in China.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 1817, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 earnings: growth and margin. Pending. Watch: Revenue growth of 20% to 22% with an adjusted operating margin above 14% passes; growth or margin below the September 16 guidance fails. Feb 24, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 earnings and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.27 to $1.30 and 2027 revenue growth guidance of low double digits or more pass; lower guidance fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-16: Dennis Tao resigned from the Amer Sports board. The board appointed Eric Ding, chairman of ANTA Sports' Descente business in China and son of Amer Sports' chairman Ding Shizhong, as a director. 2026-10-15: Amer Sports said that it will report Q3 2026 results before the market opens on November 17, 2026, with a call at 8:00 a.m. ET. 2026-09-17: Amer Sports held an investor day in Annecy, France, with a focus on Salomon. It kept its five-year plan of low-double-digit to mid-teens annual revenue growth and 30 to 70 or more basis points of adjusted operating margin growth a year, with 2026 as the base year. 2026-09-16: Amer Sports raised its Q3 2026 guidance. It now expects revenue growth of 20% to 22%, up from 18% to 20%, and an adjusted operating margin slightly above the top of the earlier 13.5% to 14% range. 2026-08-20: Tencent sold about 15.8 million Amer Sports shares in block trades at an average price of $33.86. After the sale, Tencent holds about 15.8 million shares, or about 2.7% of the shares. 2026-08-18: Amer Sports reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue grew 32% to $1,633 million, with Technical Apparel up 32%, Outdoor Performance up 37% and Ball & Racquet Sports up 24%. Gross margin was 65.6%, including 390 basis points from net tariff refunds. Adjusted EPS was $0.22. The company raised its 2026 guidance to about 24% revenue growth and adjusted EPS of $1.27 to $1.30. 2026-05-19: Amer Sports reported Q1 2026 results. Revenue grew 32% to about $1.95 billion. Greater China revenue grew 44.5% to $645 million, and net income was $165 million.