APH changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $80.88 → $79.20(−2.1%)
- Discount
- 10% to 27% → 12% to 28%(+2.0 pts)
- Next earnings
- 2026-10-29 → 2026-10-28
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- Amphenol trades at a discount because investors fear that its growth depends on AI data center spending that can slow. In Q2 2026, IT datacom sales grew 63% on an organic basis to $3.8 billion, about 43% of total sales. If the large cloud companies cut their AI budgets, these orders can fall fast. Investors also watch the cost of the CommScope CCS purchase, which Amphenol paid for with cash and new debt. Debt was $18.8 billion at June 30, 2026, against $5.4 billion of cash and short-term investments. Part of the Q2 2026 margin also came from an $80 million benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds, which will not repeat. For the gap to close, orders must stay above sales, as they did with a book-to-bill of 1.23 in Q2 2026, Amphenol must reach its Q3 2026 guidance of $9.3 to $9.4 billion of sales and $0.70 to $0.71 of split-adjusted adjusted EPS, and growth must spread beyond IT datacom to markets such as defense, industrial and automotive. CommScope must also reach its expected 2026 sales of $4.6 billion. The first test is the Q3 2026 report, expected in late on October 28, 2026. The second test is the Q4 2026 report, expected in late January 2027, with the first view of 2027. If orders stay strong, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main risk is a cut in AI data center spending that reduces orders.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 2928, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results: orders and IT datacom. Pending. Watch: Sales within or above $9.3 to $9.4 billion, split-adjusted adjusted EPS of at least $0.70, and a book-to-bill above 1 pass; a book-to-bill below 1 or lower IT datacom orders fail. Jan 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 view. Pending. Watch: Organic growth in markets beyond IT datacom and CommScope sales near $4.6 billion for 2026 pass; falling orders or weak CommScope sales fail.