ALLY changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $37.69 → $38.69(+2.7%)
- Discount
- 9% to 33% → 7% to 32%(−2.0 pts)
- Next earnings
- 2026-10-20 → 2027-01-20
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- Thesis
- The market prices Ally for the risk of higher credit losses on auto loans and for its modest capital. Auto loans are most of its assets. If unemployment rises or used car prices fall, loan losses can rise quickly. Ally's CET1 ratio was 10.12% at JuneSeptember 30, 2026, which leaves less room for buybacks than at larger banks, and its debt ratings are at the lowest investment grade level. Its margin also depends on interest rates and deposit costs. Recent results improved: in Q2Q3 2026, adjusted EPS rose 2216% to $1.2134, core ROTCE rose to 1113.81% and the retail auto net charge-off rate fell towas 1.5789%. For the gap to close, three things must be true. The retail auto net charge-off rate must stay within the 2026 guidance of 1.8% to 2.0%. The net interest margin, excluding OID, must stay within the 3.60% to 3.7065% guidance. Core ROTCE must keep rising, so that capital grows and buybacks can increase. The Q3 2026 report on October 20, 2026, is the next test. The Q4 report and the 2027 outlook in January 2027 are the next and main test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. The main reason it may not close is a weaker job market, which would raise auto loan losses.
- Risks
- Most of Ally's loans are auto loans to consumers. Higher unemployment or lower used car prices can raise loan losses. Retail auto loans 30 or more days past due were 4.8096% at JuneSeptember 30, 2026. Ally's CET1 ratio was 10.12% at JuneSeptember 30, 2026, and its long-term debt ratings were BBB- or Baa3, the lowest investment grade level. Higher losses or new capital rules can limit buybacks and raise funding costs. Ally pays high rates to attract online deposits. If competition for deposits rises, or if interest rates move against its loan book, the net interest margin can fall below its 3.60% to 3.7065% guidance for 2026. Car makers' finance companies and banks compete with Ally for dealer business. Changes in car sales, tariffs on vehicles or dealer relationships can lower loan volumes.
- Balance sheet
- Ally funds itself mostly with deposits. At JuneSeptember 30, 2026, total assetsdeposits were $199155.8 billion and deposits were $154.0 billion, of which $143141.69 billion were retail deposits, 92% FDIC insured. Deposits were 8786% of its funding. Other fundingTotal available liquidity was $61.2 billion, 5.92 times its uninsured deposits. At June 30, 2026, the last date with a full balance sheet, total assets were $199.8 billion of, short-term borrowings andwere $175.19 billion ofand long-term debt. Cash and cash equivalents were $7.5 billion, and total available liquidity was $6217.81 billion. Finance receivables and loans were $143.7 billion, with an allowance for loan losses of $3.6 billion. Capital is the real limit. TheAt September 30, 2026, the CET1 ratio was 10.12%, with risk-weighted assets of about $156158 billion.8 A $6 billion auto credit risk transfer in Q3 2026 added about 0.25 percentage points of CET1 when it was issued. Total equity was $15.50 billion, including $2.0 billion of preferred stock. Adjusted tangible book value was $4241.1200 per share. LongAt June 30, 2026, long-term debt ratings were BBB- from Fitch (positive outlook) and S&P, Baa3 from Moody's and BBB from DBRS. As of 2026-0609-30.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 20, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: auto credit and margin. PendingPassed. Watch: A retail auto net charge-off rate within the 1.8% to 2.0% guidance and a net interest margin excluding OID of 3.60% or more pass; higher losses or a lower margin fail. Outcome: The retail auto net charge-off rate was 1.89% and the net interest margin excluding OID was 3.66%, and Ally kept its loss guidance. Jan 20, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and the 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: A 2027 outlook with higher returns and stable auto loan losses passes; guidance for higher losses or a lower margin fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-20: Ally reported Q3 2026 results. GAAP EPS was $1.30 and adjusted EPS was $1.34, up 16%. Core ROTCE was 13.1% and the net interest margin excluding OID was 3.66%. Consumer auto originations were $12.9 billion from a record 4.8 million applications. The retail auto net charge-off rate was 1.89%, and retail auto loans 30 or more days past due were 4.96%. Ally bought back $178 million of shares, completed a $6 billion auto credit risk transfer and raised its quarterly dividend to $0.35 from $0.30. It narrowed its 2026 margin guidance to 3.60% to 3.65%. 2026-10-05: The board amended and restated Ally's bylaws. The changes update the advance notice rules, the voting standards and the rules on board size, and align other rules with Delaware law. 2026-09-16: Ally issued $750 million of 5.525% fixed-to-floating rate senior notes due 2030. 2026-07-21: Ally reported Q2 2026 results. GAAP EPS was $1.18 and adjusted EPS was $1.21, up 22%. Core ROTCE was 11.8% and the net interest margin excluding OID was 3.63%. Consumer auto originations were $13.3 billion from a record 4.6 million applications. The retail auto net charge-off rate fell to 1.57%. Ally bought back $148 million of shares, and its CET1 ratio was 10.1%. 2026-05-01: Ally issued $1.0 billion of Series D fixed-rate reset preferred stock at 7.1%. It used the money to support the redemption of $1.35 billion of its 4.700% Series B preferred stock in Q2 2026. 2026-01-21: Ally reported 2025 results. Net income for common shareholders was $742 million, or $2.37 per share, and adjusted EPS was $3.81, up from $2.35 in 2024. The net interest margin rose to 3.43%.